The Blog
Pulse — Perspectives & Ideas
Economic insight, policy commentary, and original thinking on Africa's future.
Latest Articles
2026-04-10 · Kampamba Shula
Maize Markets Unlocked: The Opportunity—and Risk—Behind Zambia’s Export Decision
Zambia’s decision to lift maize and mealie meal export restrictions opens new opportunities for farmers and foreign exchange earnings, but also raises concerns about local food prices and supply. While expanded markets can boost production and incomes, careful policy coordination will be required to balance exports with national food security and price stability.
2026-04-01 · Kampamba Shula
What We’re Not Paying: Reverse Engineering Zambia’s Fuel Prices
Fuel prices in Zambia have increased to K27.15 for petrol and K29.78 for diesel, but government intervention through VAT zero-rating and excise duty suspension is masking the true cost. By reversing the tax structure, petrol would likely exceed K34 per litre and diesel K35, revealing how policy is cushioning consumers from a much sharper price shock.
2026-03-31 · Kampamba Shula
When Geopolitics Meets the Pump Price
A machine learning forecast predicted Zambia’s April petrol price within a narrow range—landing almost exactly on the official figure. Behind this accuracy lies a deeper story of how Iran–US–Israel tensions, global oil markets, and exchange rate dynamics shape local fuel prices.
2026-03-24 · Kampamba Shula
Why Rising Oil Prices Haven’t Triggered a Fuel Price Surge in Zambia
Despite Brent crude surging above $100 amid geopolitical tensions, fuel prices in Zambia are only expected to rise modestly. This analysis reveals why the exchange rate — not oil prices — is the dominant driver.