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Pulse — Perspectives & Ideas

Economic insight, policy commentary, and original thinking on Africa's future.

Featured2026-05-13

Bank of Zambia MPC Decision Brief: Reading the Signal Behind the Policy Rate

Zambia’s Monetary Policy Committee meets at a time when inflation has eased below target, the kwacha has shown periods of stability, and liquidity conditions remain contained. However, model-based signals from Taylor Rule frameworks and machine learning forecasts suggest a narrow but important policy gap relative to the current BoZ policy rate of 13.50%. This brief examines macro conditions, model signals, and policy implications ahead of the MPC decision.

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2026-05-06

Zambia’s Maize Surplus: Abundance Without Coordination

2026-04-10

Maize Markets Unlocked: The Opportunity—and Risk—Behind Zambia’s Export Decision

Latest Articles

2026-04-01 · Kampamba Shula

What We’re Not Paying: Reverse Engineering Zambia’s Fuel Prices

Fuel prices in Zambia have increased to K27.15 for petrol and K29.78 for diesel, but government intervention through VAT zero-rating and excise duty suspension is masking the true cost. By reversing the tax structure, petrol would likely exceed K34 per litre and diesel K35, revealing how policy is cushioning consumers from a much sharper price shock.

2026-03-31 · Kampamba Shula

When Geopolitics Meets the Pump Price

A machine learning forecast predicted Zambia’s April petrol price within a narrow range—landing almost exactly on the official figure. Behind this accuracy lies a deeper story of how Iran–US–Israel tensions, global oil markets, and exchange rate dynamics shape local fuel prices.

2026-03-24 · Kampamba Shula

Why Rising Oil Prices Haven’t Triggered a Fuel Price Surge in Zambia

Despite Brent crude surging above $100 amid geopolitical tensions, fuel prices in Zambia are only expected to rise modestly. This analysis reveals why the exchange rate — not oil prices — is the dominant driver.